Despite the easing of inflation and reductions in interest rates, many South African homeowners with bonded properties remain under significant financial pressure. This is reflected in the rising number of overdue home loan payments, indicating that economic relief has yet to translate into improved financial stability for consumers. The persistent strain suggests that, for many, the cost of living continues to outpace any gains made through policy adjustments, leaving households stretched to their financial limits.
Key Takeaways
- Homeowners Still Under Pressure: Despite lower inflation and interest rate cuts, overdue home loan balances have surged by 23% year-on-year, showing that financial relief has not eased the burden for many South Africans. Even high-income earners are struggling to keep up with repayments.
- Rising Dependence on High-Interest Credit: Credit card overdue balances have increased by 13% year-on-year, while unsecured loan overdue balances have grown by R1.9 billion in just one quarter. Many consumers are turning to expensive credit options to cover daily expenses, deepening their financial struggles.
- Potential VAT Hike Could Add More Financial Strain: A proposed VAT increase could push up the cost of attorney fees, estate agent commissions, and home loan registration fees. This would make homeownership even less affordable, forcing many prospective buyers to either adjust their expectations or delay purchasing property altogether.
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Findings from the Latest Credit Stress Report
Research and analytics firm Eighty20 has released its Credit Stress Report for the fourth quarter of 2024, highlighting concerning trends in overdue balances across multiple credit products. The report pointed to a 23% year-on-year increase in overdue home loan balances, while credit card overdue balances rose by 13% over the same period. These figures paint a stark picture of financial distress gripping South African consumers, particularly those who had hoped lower interest rates would provide some relief.
The total outstanding balance on all loans increased by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter, reaching R2.5 trillion. More concerningly, overdue balances rose by 3% quarter-on-quarter, reaching R200 billion. Such a surge in overdue debt suggests that many consumers are falling behind on their repayments, a warning sign that financial recovery remains elusive for a large portion of the population. These trends suggest that financial strain is affecting even higher-income households, which are typically more resilient to economic downturns.
Debt Burden in Higher-Income Segments
The data indicates that overdue balances are predominantly rising within the wealthiest consumer segments. While economic relief measures, such as declining inflation and two interest rate cuts, might have been expected to alleviate financial distress, the report found that even top-income earners are struggling to manage their debt obligations. This underscores a troubling reality—if the wealthiest are feeling the pinch, the financial situation for middle- and lower-income earners is likely even more dire.
A key driver of the increase in overdue balances was a R1.9 billion (2% quarter-on-quarter) surge in overdue unsecured loans. Additionally, credit card overdue balances rose by R1.7 billion (5% quarter-on-quarter), while vehicle asset finance (VAF) overdue balances remained stable at R15.9 billion.
With consumers turning to high-interest loans and maxing out credit cards just to keep afloat, the data suggests that many are running out of options.
Growing Reliance on High-Interest Credit
The report highlights a concerning trend: South Africans are increasingly relying on credit card debt and retail loans to navigate financial difficulties. The rise in overdue balances suggests that many consumers are turning to high-interest unsecured credit products to cover everyday expenses, as wage growth remains stagnant and living costs continue to rise. As inflation eats into disposable income, more households are living on borrowed money, creating a precarious financial future.
The findings underscore a growing dependence on costly forms of credit in an economy where disposable income is under strain. Consumers appear to be using credit cards and unsecured loans as a financial buffer, despite the long-term risks of accumulating unmanageable debt. With each passing month, more people are being dragged deeper into the cycle of debt, where repayment becomes an impossible task rather than a manageable obligation.
A Significant Portion of Income Goes Towards Debt Repayments
According to the report, the overall instalment-to-net-income ratio for South African consumers currently sits at 30%. This means that nearly one-third of the net income earned by credit-active individuals is being allocated to servicing debt obligations. This statistic highlights the financial squeeze facing South Africans, where debt repayment is consuming earnings meant for daily necessities.
For higher-income earners, this percentage is even more pronounced. The wealthiest consumer segment, referred to as the “Heavy Hitters,” allocates 48% of its income to debt repayments. The middle class follows closely behind, with 38% of their income committed to servicing various forms of debt. Meanwhile, the “Mass Credit Market” group spends 19% of its income on debt repayments, and “Comfortable Retirees” allocate 21% of their income toward outstanding credit obligations. With so much of their income tied up in repaying past debts, these consumers have little room to manage unexpected expenses, creating a fragile financial situation.
Profiling South Africa’s Credit Segments
South African consumers were categorised into four primary credit-active segments:
- Heavy Hitters: Representing the top 5% of earners, this group holds the highest level of assets. Predominantly male, they have significant online engagement and frequently make large purchases. Their total debt burden is more than seven times that of middle-class workers.
- Middle-Class Workers: Comprising 4.1 million middle-income individuals, this segment includes families with mortgages and a strong reliance on credit for day-to-day expenses.
- Mass Credit Market: Representing lower-middle-class employed individuals, primarily female, this group has high engagement with retail store accounts, with 82% holding such accounts and 20% having credit cards.
- Comfortable Retirees: Consisting of high-income, asset-rich former professionals and middle-class retirees, this segment remains credit-active despite their financial stability.
DebtBusters Confirms Rising Home Loan Stress
A separate report from DebtBusters echoed the concerns raised by Eighty20, revealing that South Africans earning more than R35 000 per month are dedicating a staggering 74% of their monthly take-home pay to servicing debt. Home loans and vehicle asset finance make up a significant portion of their outstanding debt, further illustrating the pressure on high-income earners despite economic relief measures. This suggests that even those earning well above the national average are struggling to stay afloat, with home loan repayments consuming the bulk of their earnings.
Impact of Potential VAT Increases on Homebuyers
Adding to these financial concerns, proposed increases in South Africa’s value-added tax (VAT) could further burden homeowners and potential buyers. Experts have warned that a VAT hike would likely result in higher costs for property transactions, affecting both new home purchases and associated services. For those already struggling to secure home loans, additional costs could push homeownership further out of reach.
Michael-Anne Abrahams, a bond originator from MyProperty Home Loans, cautioned that potential VAT adjustments in the postponed Budget could reshape the financial landscape for homebuyers. She noted that while the direct cost of homes may not increase, the VAT hike would raise the cost of critical services, including attorney fees, estate agent commissions, and home loan registration fees. The added financial burden could discourage potential buyers from entering the property market altogether.
The increased cost of these services would directly impact home affordability, potentially reducing the purchasing power of prospective buyers. Many buyers may find themselves qualifying for smaller home loans or needing to adjust their home-buying plans in response to these financial changes. For some, it may mean delaying homeownership indefinitely, as affordability concerns push the dream of owning a home further out of reach.
Conclusion
With overdue balances continuing to rise and financial pressures mounting, South African homeowners—particularly those with bonds—face a challenging period ahead. The combination of high levels of debt repayment, increasing reliance on unsecured credit, and the potential for further tax-related expenses suggests that financial strain will remain a significant issue for many households in the foreseeable future. Unless there is meaningful economic relief, South African consumers will continue to struggle under the weight of mounting debt, leaving many with tough financial choices to make.
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